Week 1: The Dragons Gambling Den

Welcome to The Dragons Gambling Den, my weekly look at how I can make enough money to cover next year’s Roster Wars entry fee without relying on Ryan Mathews wine glass ankles not shattering…

I’ll be suggesting some bets each week, explaining my thinking behind the selections, posting the results from previous weeks (and no doubt crying about last minute touchdowns bringing down bets) and showing running totals as we go.

Please feel free to post comments or ask questions if anything is unclear. I’m always happy to look at other bets or ideas if there is something any of you would like to see.

A couple of things to get out of the way first. I am in England – I’m sure most of you have got that already – and we use different betting terms here. I will explain the bets this week as I’m pretty sure you call them something different. I’m not talking down to any experienced punters out there, just trying to put things in terms that everyone understands. I also have to use the handicap lines that the UK bookies offer so there may be a point or so difference in some places.

Odds are listed as fractions such as 2/1. The number before the / is what you win, the number after the / is what you bet. So, if your $10 bet at 2/1 wins, you get $2 for each $1 you bet. Your bet returns $30 which is $20 winnings and your $10 stake back.

That’s got all of the blurb out of the way. Let’s gamble.

Week 1

Week 1 is pretty horrible for betting. We only have last year and some mostly meaningless pre-season games to go on. As perfectly highlighted in the Cowboys shock season opening win at the Giants, week 1 is pretty hard to predict.

I’ll split the bets into 3 sections initially but this may grow to 4 or 5 sections in future weeks. I am looking to stake around $20 total per week though this will alter depending on confidence and possibly desperation. And yes, I am actually putting real money on these picks…

Bet 1 – The Banker Treble
A treble is simply selecting teams in 3 different games and all 3 teams must win their game for the bet to come in. The individual odds are generally pretty horrible but lumping 3 in together should hopefully get us a decent return.

Eagles @ Browns – taking the Eagles at odds of 1/5
The Eagles scare me a little. They were heavily touted last year and started terribly. They had their reasons though and a trip to Cleveland is the perfect opportunity for them to start on the right foot. Weedon will be under serious pressure from the Eagles D and I can’t see the Browns scoring enough to keep up.

Rams @ Lions – taking the Rams at 1/4
Detroit have a fantastic offense. They don’t need a great defence against St. Louis. Sam Bradford was shocking last season and whilst he will improve with Amendola back, it won’t be enough to compete here. Easy win for Stafford and Co.

Falcons @ Chiefs – taking the Falcons at 4/6
Again, banking on the better offense doing the business. Ryan / White / Jones / Gonzo / Turner look good enough to me here. The Chiefs looked awful in pre-season and Bowe’s holdout won’t have helped anything. That they have one of the best RB combo’s in the league is a danger but I see the Falcons being too strong.

So Eagles, Lions and Falcons all have to win. The suggested bet is $10 returning $25 if it hits.

Bet 2 – The Handicap Double or Treble
A double is exactly the same format as a treble except with 2 selections rather than 3. There will sometimes be 2 selections and sometimes 3 in this section.

Bookies set a handicap line – the amount of points they expect the better team to win by – and the bet is to finish on the right side of that line. I’ll break that down a little more.

Example: The Rams (+9) @ Lions (-9) handicap is in brackets. The Lions effectively start the game with a theoretical 9 point defecit, shown by the -9. To beat the handicap, they have to win the game by more than 9 points. If they lose the game or win it by less than 9 points, the Rams win on the handicap. Make sense?

Week 1 is usually very difficult to hit handicaps so I’ll be going with a double this week.

Seahawks (-1) @ Cardinals (+1) – taking the Seahawks at 8/11
I’m going to concentrate on the tight games that just don’t look right to me. The Cardinals are at home, have one of the best WR’s in the game in Fitz and have a decent running game. All positives. But they don’t have a quarterback. BIG negative. The Seahawks looked good in pre-season and have rightly given their rookie QB the helm. They have plenty of offensive weapons but I’d be much happier with this selection if Beast Mode plays.

Bills (+2.5) @ Jets (-2.5) – taking the Bills at Evens
The Jets suck. They deserve to lose. Every week. I hated the Jets last year and they then signed Tebow… The Bills were hot in the first half of last season their slump was blamed in part on Fitzpatrick's rib injury. They also lost Fred Jackson, a fantastic runner. The Bills get a 2.5 point start here and I think that’s value.

The Seahawks to win by 2 points or more and the Bills to do better than losing by 3 points. The suggested bet is $6 which pays $20.73 if both results go our way.

Bet 3 – Stabs In The Dark
Fun bets really. There are up to about 40 available betting markets on NFL games. You can bet on pretty much anything from the first scoring play to whether a cheerleader’s breast falls out in the halftime show. Well, perhaps not the last one. This section is for punts – long shot selections that may only hit once or twice a season but will pay handsomely if they do.

$1 on each of the following:

Eagles @ Browns – first touchdown scorer – Brent Celek @ 14/1 - $1 returns $15
As the bet suggests, this pays out on the first player to score a TD i the game. There’s a high percentage chance it will be an Eagle. McCoy is too short at 9/2 so I’m banking on Vick finding his favourite late season target. 14/1 is a good bet.

Bills @ Jets – first touchdown scorer – Tim Tebow @ 14/1 - $1 returns $15
No-one wants this to happen but there are rumours he’s getting goal-line work. A nice cash return will make me feel better as I watch the smug bastard’s face fill the screen whilst the commentators take turns to fawn over him. Sigh.

Seahawks @ Cardinals – first touchdown scorer – Seahawks D/ST @ 16/1 - $1 returns $17
John Skelton’s first throw intercepted and returned for a TD. And possibly his second too but we don’t get extra for that.

Chargers @ Raiders – double result – Draw / Raiders @ 14/1 - $1 returns $15
Double result is betting on the result of the game at half time and then full time. I see this as a tight game so I’m hoping they are level at half time, with the Raiders squeaking out a win late on.

Total stake this week is $20. Fingers crossed for a positive start.

Johnny English out.